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LIVEEdition 1 v2.0
Week in one line: Australian wheat basis tightened on slow grower selling into a weakening AUD, while US corn futures softened on improving Midwest planting pace. Feeder cattle held firm in thin turnover. Freight rates on east coast grain corridors edged higher ahead of new-crop logistics planning. The RBA held rates at 3.60%, keeping the AUD under pressure — a tailwind for AU exporters but a headwind for imported inputs.
1. Commodity Price Console
Grains & Oilseeds
| Commodity | Region | Close | WoW | MoM | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APW Wheat | AU (ASX) | $362/t | +1.4% | +3.1% | -8.2% | [1] |
| Wheat (Jul 26) | US (CBOT) | 684 c/bu | -0.9% | +2.4% | -5.6% | [2] |
| Corn (Jul 26) | US (CBOT) | 448 c/bu | -1.7% | +0.3% | -12.1% | [2] |
| Soybeans (Jul 26) | US (CBOT) | 1,078 c/bu | +0.6% | -1.8% | -9.4% | [2] |
| Canola (Nov 26) | AU (ICE) | A$742/t | +2.1% | +4.7% | +6.3% | [3] |
| Milling Wheat | EU (MATIF) | €228/t | +0.2% | +1.9% | -3.1% | [4] |
| Corn (Dalian) | CN (DCE) | ¥2,485/t | -0.5% | -1.2% | -7.8% | [5] |
Livestock
| Indicator | Region | Close | WoW | MoM | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EYCI | AU (MLA) | 872 c/kg | +0.8% | +3.5% | +18.2% | [6] |
| Feeder Cattle (Aug 26) | US (CME) | 264.50 c/lb | +0.1% | +2.2% | +11.4% | [7] |
| Live Cattle (Jun 26) | US (CME) | 198.75 c/lb | +0.4% | +1.8% | +9.6% | [7] |
| Class III Milk | US (CME) | $19.42/cwt | -1.1% | -2.6% | +5.3% | [7] |
| Lamb (NLTRS) | AU (MLA) | 716 c/kg | +1.2% | +4.8% | +14.1% | [6] |
Energy, Freight & FX
| Indicator | Close | WoW | MoM | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude (Jul 26) | US$64.80/bbl | -2.3% | -6.1% | -18.4% | [8] |
| AU Diesel (terminal) | A$1.72/L | +0.1% | -3.4% | -11.2% | [9] |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1,842 | +3.6% | +8.2% | +22.5% | [10] |
| AU East Coast Grain Freight | A$48/t | +2.1% | +5.4% | +9.8% | [11] |
| AUD/USD | 0.6425 | -0.6% | -1.8% | -4.3% | [12] |
| AUD/CNY | 4.65 | -0.4% | -1.2% | -3.8% | [12] |
| RBA Cash Rate | 3.60% | — | — | -50bp | [12] |
2. Evidence-Backed Movers
Wheat — AU Basis Tightens
WATCH AU APW basis narrowed to +$28/t over CBOT (vs +$35 last week). Grower selling pace remains 12% below the 5-year average for this period [1]. Port zone stocks in SA and WA are drawing down faster than expected — Viterra reported 15% lower receivals at Port Lincoln vs May 2025 [1]. Meanwhile, CBOT wheat faced headwinds from improved US HRW crop condition ratings (52% good/excellent, up 3pp WoW) [2]. The net effect: AU physical wheat is outperforming the flat price.
What to watch: USDA Crop Progress (Mon) for US winter wheat conditions; BoM 8-day for NSW/QLD rainfall; Black Sea FOB offers (currently $238/t, down $4 WoW).
Corn — US Planting Pace Pressures
STABLE CBOT corn eased 1.7% WoW as USDA Crop Progress showed 78% planted (vs 72% last week, 82% 5yr avg) [2]. The market is pricing in a catch-up scenario after wet delays in the eastern Corn Belt. Brazil safrinha harvest is 18% complete (vs 12% last year), adding to global supply comfort [13]. Chinese import demand remains subdued — Dalian corn futures down 0.5% WoW, and customs data shows Jan–Apr imports at 4.2Mt (down 38% YoY) [5].
What to watch: WASDE report (12 Jun) for updated US/Brazil production estimates; weekly ethanol grind data (EIA Wed).
Cattle — Restocking Cycle Intact
WATCH EYCI rose 0.8% to 872c/kg cwt, supported by continued restocking demand in central QLD and northern NSW following strong autumn rainfall [6]. Slaughter numbers remain 8% below the 5-year average nationally, constraining supply into export channels [6]. In the US, feeder cattle futures are holding near contract highs as tight cow-calf inventories persist — USDA Cattle on Feed (May) showed placements down 6% YoY [7]. AU live export demand from Indonesia remains firm (68,000 head in Q1, +12% YoY) [14].
What to watch: MLA weekly slaughter report (Thu); US Cattle on Feed (Fri); Indonesia import quota announcement (expected Jun).
Freight & Energy — Corridor Pressure Building
ALERT East coast grain freight rates rose 2.1% WoW to A$48/t on the benchmark Moree–Newcastle corridor as carriers begin positioning for new-crop (Oct/Nov) commitments [11]. BDI jumped 3.6% WoW on Capesize strength driven by Brazilian iron ore fixtures [10]. Brent crude fell 2.3% to US$64.80 on higher OPEC+ production signals and softening Chinese refinery throughput [8]. AU terminal diesel held near flat at A$1.72/L — the lag from crude will show in 2–3 weeks [9].
What to watch: FreightWaves SONAR outbound tender volumes (daily); OPEC+ ministerial meeting (1 Jun); AU fuel excise quarterly adjustment (Jul 1).
3. Risk Board
| Risk | Region | Status | Direction | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather — Drought | AU (NSW/QLD) | WATCH | Neutral → Dry | BoM 3-month outlook (Jun–Aug): below-median rainfall for inland NSW/QLD. El Niño watch maintained [15]. |
| Weather — Planting | US (Corn Belt) | STABLE | Improving | 7-day GFS model shows drier window across IA/IL/IN, supporting planting catch-up [2]. |
| Freight Capacity | AU (East Coast) | ALERT | Tightening | Carrier commitments for Oct/Nov new-crop already 30% booked in some corridors [11]. |
| Policy — AU-CN | AU/CN | STABLE | Improving | Barley tariff removal (May 2025) holding; wine tariff review ongoing. Canola flows normalising [16]. |
| Policy — US Trade | US/Global | WATCH | Uncertain | USTR Section 301 review on ag inputs due Q3. Potential retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans from select markets [17]. |
| FX — AUD | AU | WATCH | Weakening | RBA held 3.60%; next meeting 24 Jun. Market pricing 60% chance of 25bp cut by Aug [12]. |
| Biosecurity | AU | STABLE | Contained | No new detections. Varroa mite eradication zones stable in NSW [18]. |
4. Scenario Outlook (Next 4 Weeks)
🟢 Bull Case (20% probability)
BoM upgrades El Niño probability above 70%, triggering AU wheat basis rally to +$45/t over CBOT. EYCI breaks 900c/kg on accelerated restocking. AUD falls below 0.63 on RBA dovish pivot, amplifying AU export competitiveness. CBOT wheat tests 720c/bu on Black Sea supply concerns.
🟡 Base Case (60% probability)
Range-bound grain markets. APW wheat $355–370/t. CBOT corn 440–460c/bu. EYCI holds 850–890c/kg. AUD/USD 0.63–0.65. Freight rates drift higher into Q3. No major policy shocks. RBA holds at 3.60% through Jun meeting.
🔴 Bear Case (20% probability)
US planting catches up fully, CBOT corn breaks below 430c/bu dragging wheat. Brazil safrinha yields exceed expectations, pressuring global coarse grain complex. EYCI pulls back to 820c/kg on processor margin squeeze. OPEC+ fails to agree production cuts, Brent tests $58/bbl.
5. Last Week’s Calls vs Outcome
| Call (Ed 1 v1.0) | Outcome | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| AU wheat basis to hold +$30–40/t over CBOT | Narrowed to +$28/t — grower selling slower than expected | ✓ Directionally correct |
| CBOT corn to test support at 445c/bu | Traded to 442c/bu intraweek before recovering to 448c/bu | ✓ Hit |
| EYCI to hold above 860c/kg | EYCI at 872c/kg — restocking demand stronger than modelled | ✓ Correct, underestimated upside |
| BDI to stabilise around 1,750–1,800 | BDI at 1,842 — Capesize strength on Brazil iron ore | ≈ Partially, underestimated bulk demand |
6. Operator Action Panels
🌾 Producers
Grain: Consider locking in 10–15% of estimated new-crop wheat at current basis (+$28/t). Basis is historically tight; if El Niño materialises, it widens sharply. Review on-farm storage capacity before harvest planning commits.
Livestock: EYCI above 870c/kg favours backgrounding over direct sale. Monitor MLA slaughter data for supply signals. Consider forward contracts on Q4 delivery if restocking demand sustains.
📈 Traders & Brokers
Grains: AU wheat basis vs CBOT is compressing — spread trade opportunity if you expect El Niño confirmation. CBOT corn Jul/Dec spread at -18c/bu; watch for widening on WASDE revisions.
FX: AUD weakness supports AU grain export margins. If RBA cuts in Aug (60% priced), expect AUD/USD to test 0.62. Position accordingly on export-exposed names.
🚚 Buyers & Supply Chain
Freight: Lock east coast grain freight for Q4 now — rates are 2.1% WoW higher and corridor capacity is tightening. Moree–Newcastle and Dubbo–Port Kembla corridors are tightest.
Inputs: Diesel at $1.72/L is near 12-month lows. Consider pre-buying Q3 fuel if storage permits. Brent at $64.80 suggests further diesel relief in 2–3 weeks.
7. Upcoming Data Releases
| Date | Release | Source | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May (Mon) | USDA Crop Progress | USDA/NASS | US corn/wheat planting + conditions |
| 27 May (Tue) | MLA Weekly Slaughter | MLA | AU cattle/sheep supply |
| 28 May (Wed) | EIA Weekly Ethanol | EIA | US corn demand proxy |
| 30 May (Fri) | USDA Cattle on Feed | USDA | US cattle placements + marketings |
| 2 Jun (Mon) | BoM ENSO Outlook Update | BoM | AU seasonal rainfall probability |
| 3 Jun (Tue) | ABARES Crop Report | ABARES | AU winter crop forecasts |
| 12 Jun (Thu) | WASDE | USDA | Global S&D revisions (corn, wheat, soy) |
| 24 Jun (Tue) | RBA Rate Decision | RBA | AU monetary policy + AUD direction |
| 1 Jul (Tue) | OPEC+ Ministerial | OPEC | Production quotas + oil price direction |
8. Glossary
- APW
- Australian Premium White wheat — benchmark milling grade
- EYCI
- Eastern Young Cattle Indicator — MLA benchmark for young cattle prices (c/kg cwt)
- CBOT
- Chicago Board of Trade — primary US futures exchange for grains
- BDI
- Baltic Dry Index — composite of dry bulk shipping costs across Capesize, Panamax, Supramax routes
- NLTRS
- National Livestock Trade Reporting Service (MLA)
- c/bu
- US cents per bushel (1 bushel wheat = 27.216 kg)
- cwt
- Carcass weight — dressed weight after slaughter
- WoW / MoM / YoY
- Week-on-week / Month-on-month / Year-on-year percentage change
- WASDE
- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (USDA monthly)
- Basis
- Difference between local physical price and international futures benchmark
- Safrinha
- Brazil’s second corn crop, planted after soybeans (Jan–Feb), harvested Jun–Aug
Sources & Methodology
- [1] REALM Radar — AU grain physical prices, port zone stock estimates, grower selling pace index (internal data, updated daily)
- [2] USDA/NASS — Crop Progress Report, Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin; CBOT settlement prices via CME Group
- [3] ICE Futures Canada — Canola (WCE) settlement
- [4] Euronext (MATIF) — Milling Wheat settlement
- [5] Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) — Corn futures; China General Administration of Customs trade data
- [6] Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) — EYCI, NLTRS, weekly slaughter, live export data
- [7] CME Group — Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle, Class III Milk futures; USDA Cattle on Feed
- [8] ICE Futures Europe — Brent Crude settlement; OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
- [9] Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) — Terminal Gate Prices (weekly)
- [10] Baltic Exchange — Baltic Dry Index (daily composite)
- [11] FreightWaves SONAR — AU domestic freight indices; REALM Group Freight corridor data (internal)
- [12] Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) — Cash Rate Target; ABS/RBA exchange rate data
- [13] CONAB (Brazil) — Safrinha corn crop progress and production estimates
- [14] Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) — Live export statistics
- [15] Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) — ENSO Outlook; 3-month rainfall outlook; NOAA/CPC ENSO diagnostic
- [16] Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) — AU-China trade policy updates
- [17] United States Trade Representative (USTR) — Section 301 tariff review schedule
- [18] NSW Department of Primary Industries — Varroa mite response updates
Methodology: All prices are closing/settlement values as of the stated data date. WoW, MoM, and YoY changes are calculated on a close-to-close basis. Risk board statuses are editorial assessments based on the cited sources. Scenario probabilities are qualitative estimates informed by historical analogues and current positioning data. This is not financial advice.
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